CEER Publications
The Publications are organised in four groups:
GCSE Prospects 2026: Case for Reform?
CEER, August 2026
The 2026 results are likely to be similar to those in the two previous years, because the subject mix is little changed and there are statistical controls. The entries and grades awarded raise a number of important questions including; have GCSEs had their day; why are girls so far ahead; are compulsory resits doing any good; what’s behind Northern Ireland’s success; and was it right to abandon the EBacc? The Government is urged to address these questions in its deliberations on the future of Key Stage 4.
Download: GCSE Prospects 2026: Case for Reform?
A-Level Prospects 2026: Swing to Quantitative
CEER, August 2026
Top grades have not settled back to where they were in 2019, despite the statistical controls to stabilize them, but are edging upwards. The reason would appear to be the swing to quantitative subjects which are the highest awarders of A* grades. Boys are more likely to take and do better in these subjects so it would also explain the widening gap at A* between the sexes. If this explanation is correct, in 2026 top grades will creep up again and boys will nudge further ahead at A*, since provisional entries show that the quantitative subjects are set to rise again.
Download: A-Level Prospects 2026: Swing to Quantitative
Education in The Conservative Effect 2010-2024: 14 Wasted Years? (Eds. Anthony Seldon and Tom Egerton)
pp 157-204, Cambridge University Press, June 2024.
In education, the years were far from wasted. The first schools ministers – Gove and Gibb– had shadowed their posts for at least three years and during their time in office successfully worked towards rounding off the reforms of successive governments since the mid-1980s. Not everything worked: teacher shortages persisted; Ofsted was overloaded; and buildings were neglected. But Gove and Gibb succeeded in achieving their core aim of making England’s schools world class. After they left, however, there was considerable churn, and the department lost its way.
Are Schools Failing Boys?
Buckingham: CEER, January 2022
Boys are getting poorer results, on average, at all levels of education. This has been known for some time, but little has been done about it. It appears that many boys are not developing to their full potential. The seriousness of the issue is such that it calls for a major national inquiry.
Download: Are Schools Failing Boys?
Where Next for Apprenticeships 2016
CIPD, August 2016
In a policy report of the Chartered Institute for Personnel Development edited by Tess Lanning, Alan Smithers argues that the introduction of national apprenticeship qualifications would turn the government’s hopes for the new apprenticeships into reality.
Download: Where Next for Apprenticeships 2016 (PDF).
Social Disadvantage and Widening Access to Universities
Buckingham: CEER, November 2015
Achievement in higher education is not uniformly spread across the various sections of society. Females, those from higher income backgrounds, those from more affluent neighbourhoods, and those who are white, gain proportionally more good degrees. Universities face a dilemma: to admit on excellence or representativeness.
Download: Social Disadvantage and Widening Access to Universities (PDF).
HEFCE’s Blunder
Buckingham: CEER, November 2015
HEFCE has made a crucial error in its latest report on degree outcomes. It states that 82% of those getting firsts or upper-seconds in 2013-14 came from state schools against 73 per cent from independent schools, whereas the analysis actually shows the reverse to be the case.
Download: HEFCE’s Blunder (PDF)
The Coalition Effect, 2010-2015
Edited by Anthony Seldon and Mike Finn, Cambridge University Press, pages 257-289, March 2015
The government rushed to unsettling reforms of education but was given an ‘easy ride’ by Labour. Michael Gove’s departure left a lot of unfinished business on academies, qualifications, apprenticeships and fair funding. A new Conservative-led government is very likely to see these through. But what Labour would do is far from clear since so far it has offered only bits and pieces.
Download: The Coalition Effect, 2010-2015 (PDF)
The Ins and Outs of Selective Secondary Schools
London: Civitas, pages 194-205, March 2015
There has to be selection in education since people differ greatly in their talents, interests and aspirations. Fifteen would be a good age allowing for an array of interconnected three-year pathways across the academic and occupational.