August 2017 BUCSIS update
The Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies (BUCSIS) in the Summer of 2017
This short piece aims to update current and potential students on what the BUCSIS Teaching Team has been working on in recent months.
“At BUCSIS, our core academic work is research and teaching in the field of security, with a special emphasis on the part played by intelligence-led agencies and by diplomats in the delivery of security.”
It is hard to think of any time in the past 25 years that the security of the West seems to be more threatened than it is today. Whether we look towards Russia, to China, to North Korea, to the Middle East, to Africa or to Asia, what the West faces is uncertainty at best – and an increasingly risky, dangerous and hostile environment at worst.
Not surprisingly, the past six months have seen BUCSIS working at full tilt, speaking and writing about security and its delivery. Below you’ll find listed some of the fruits of our labours.
For 2017-2018: We’re looking forward to a full schedule of teaching and research, and looking forward to organising three major security and intelligence events over the next twelve months, on counter-terrorism policy and how to prevent terrorism (building on Julian Richards’s recent book on this subject), on security in the Eastern Mediterranean, from Greece to Israel (building on Bill Kappis’s concerns) and on the official histories of intelligence activity (led by one of our former graduate students, Dr Tony Percy of North Carolina).
Over the past year, many states have seen deep and significant political changes sweep aside accepted models and norms.
One key change has been the arrival in 2017 of a new and unpredictable US president into the White House. Britain (and the West) relies on the USA and its leadership of NATO for its security from hostile or potentially hostile states. We need to understand president Trump, why he won and who supports him. At the same time, to date (at any rate) many of the actions taken by the leader of the free world have already raised perplexing and sometimes profound questions about whether we can continue to rely on the USA, and how we can best develop our all-important security relationship with it.
Another major change and a permanent one was the decision, in June 2016, of a relatively small but clear majority of British voters to ‘Brexit’, to leave the European Union and reject further European economic and institutional integration. This was followed up by a confusing general election in June 2017. Intended to deliver ‘strong and stable leadership’ in order to effect what has variously been called a ‘Red, White and Blue Brexit’, a ‘Hard Brexit’ and more recently a ‘Smooth Brexit’. The hope had been for an increased majority (perhaps a landslide) in Parliament for Theresa May and the Conservative Party. This would, it was hoped, give the government the strongest possible hand in negotiating Brexit on the best possible terms for Britain.
In fact, when British voters awoke on 9 June, they found that their government had lost its majority and could now only govern with the support of a small Ulster Protestant party. If the referendum campaign showed that Britain was deeply divided over the EU, the election showed that it was equally divided between Left and Right. That said there is evidence to suggest, especially in London, that pro-EU voters turned to Labour. Yes, the leader of the Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn, is as committed to leaving the EU’s Single Market as his adversary, Theresa May. But within both parties, this line finds opposition, especially perhaps in Labour. And although the two leaders may agree on Brexit, they fundamentally disagree on aspects of Britain’s security policy. Given the turbulent times ahead in Britain, the only thing that is certain — is uncertainty.
The security dimension to Brexit is of the great importance and has occupied a good deal of Anthony Glees’s work over recent months. The link between quitting the EU and national security was most clearly mapped by Theresa May (on 25 April 2016 when she was a Remain supporting home secretary): ‘My judgement as home secretary is that remaining a member of the EU means that we shall all be more secure from crime and terrorism’. Although she has had to change her mind on this, the case she made was – and remains – compelling.
The Lisbon Treaty states (Article 4(2), TEU) that ‘national security remains the sole responsibility for the member state’ and that the EU has no direct competence in this area, but in practice, EU member states of the EU have opted to cooperate, exploiting the facility possessed by the EU to facilitate this through practice-oriented institutional arrangements that are capable of enhancing the intelligence reach of all member states, not least in respect of resource-intensive ones such as interception and satellite technology.
Leaving the EU means that the UK will be required to leave INTCEN, the Open Source (OSINT) Division, the EU Situation Room and the Consular Crisis Management Division as well as the Counter-Terrorist Group (Whitehall Briefing, 2016). The UK will also have to quit Europol which is now an EU institution. Britain will no longer participate in the Common Security and Defence policy, the Political and Security Committee, the EU Satellite Centre (SATCEN), Galileo, as well as a host of Open Source (OSINT) research groups (for example the Single Intelligence Analysis Capacity).
But after June 2019 could the UK be knocking on the door of these security and intelligence organisations, asking to come in? Or will be left on the outside permanently, pressing our noses to the window if we can.
Britain hopes that by virtue of an agreement on security it will continue to share intelligence-led security work with the EU27 in line with the prime minister’s Lancaster House speech of 17 January 2017 where Mrs May offered security and intelligence sharing to the EU27 in return for a favourable ‘deal’ can on trade. She emphasised that Britain had uniquely successful intelligence services and was providing a lead leading on security in Europe. Continued security and intelligence cooperation with the EU27 are deemed of such importance to the UK that in any rational scenario it is inconceivable it will not continue post-Brexit unless the break with Europe is complete in every respect.
However, in her important speech of 17 January 2017, Theresa May said that Britain would quit the final jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (the ECJ) and that it was a non-negotiable ‘red line’. If that remains the position of the British government, re-entry into the EU security and intelligence community which is, ultimately, subject to the ECJ, is simply impossible.
The third major security challenge facing the UK at present comes, of course, from Islamist terrorism. For more than ten years, Britain has been subjected to a succession of Islamist terrorist attacks. But the three attacks in the first half of 2017 taken together, combined with some so far minor evidence of right-wing violence and terrorism, were widely seen as constituting a new level of concern.
Self-evidently, these attacks could not be disrupted, the perpetrators involved in the Islamist ones were not unknown to the authorities (both matters suggesting that the UK security community was not meeting the demands placed on it) and they implied that the problem was worsening. Britain appeared very vulnerable and Islamist thinking seemed to be becoming endemic amongst small but dangerous groupings of British Muslims.
Whatever the outcome and however the security challenges faced by the UK and indeed the entire western world, BUCSIS will be monitoring them, analysing them and presenting its viewpoints for public and political consideration.
BUCSIS Right Now
As we enter the second half of 2017, BUCSIS boasts a world class set of students – who come, literally, from all over the world. With 35 students taking our one year MA course and 10 taking our at MPhil and DPhil programmes, we are perhaps the largest research and teaching unit of its kind anywhere in Europe. Our students are, literally, a global cohort of excellent scholars from as far west as the Americas, as far east as Papua New Guinea and with many coming from Africa and Asia. A significant number either go on to work in the delivery of security, or are already practitioners in it.
We offer a clear practice-based and professionally oriented scheme of studies, with an emphasis on the need to understand the security problems and policies to be found in the real world, outside the ‘ivory tower’ of academe and arcane theory but infused with the critical thinking that is the hallmark of intellectual rigour. Our MA provides a genuine education in leadership in the field of security by ensuring that alongside academic learning, strong research and presentational skills, students receive tradecraft instruction.
Students who choose not to work in the security field, find that the core skills acquired and the core talents honed at BUCSIS provide them with a portfolio that suits perfectly for entry into professional careers. Many of our students do go on to work for the government in one form or another.
Our aim as a research-led teaching Centre is to assist in making Foresight out of Hindsight. We do this first by our research, then by our teaching, and finally by our outreach.
Professor Anthony Glees
Over the summer, Anthony Glees had, at one point, over 4,400 hits on the Google News tab, including interviews he has given to many major national and international newspapers and magazines reflecting national and international concerns with security and intelligence-related issues.
Over the past months, he has appeared on television and radio, including Sky TV, BBC TV News, ABC (Australia); BBC Radio, both national and regional; various US radio stations, Swiss Radio, Austrian State Radio, Italian national Radio, French Radio and German national radio and German regional radio stations.
Recently, he contributed to a BBC Future’s essay on secret ‘Numbers Channels’:
Just before the Wimbledon Tournament, he did a TV interview for Dutch national TV, discussing (and dismissing) the likelihood of an Islamist attack on Wimbledon: good and tried security measures can and do deter terrorist attacks:
http://nos.nl/uitzending/nieuwsuur (He appears at 38:25)
During the election period in June 2017 he gave two interviews to German national TV news on Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen:
An extended, 30-minute interview with Anthony was broadcast on BBC Radio Scotland, covering his academic career and interests 31 May 2017:
He was delighted to be asked to speak at Muenster Cathedral, along with the director of the Munich Security Conference and other notable figures in the field:
In April 2017 he spent several days in Abu Dhabi, at the invitation of the Ministry of Higher Education there, assessing a new security and intelligence programme for the UAE.
Dr Julian Richards
His current research interests revolve around counter-terrorism and counter-extremism policy; Far Right extremist ideology; and global terrorism and conflict trends and policies, including cyber threats.
Julian is a regional editor for the journal, the International Journal of Intelligence, Security and Public Affairs; an Associate of the Pakistan Security Research Unit (PSRU); and an Advisory Board member of the European Observatoire des Think-Tanks, and EU-funded SAFFRON Project. He is also the Programme Director for the MA in Law Enforcement, Security and Intelligence; and the head of student research at BUCSIS, supervising a number of DPhil and MPhil projects.
As the author of four noted books, and numerous articles and chapters, on various aspects of intelligence analysis policy and practice; national security policy (including ccybersecurity; and identity and extremism, he finds himself is a regular commentator on national and international radio and TV, recently including the Islam Channel, LBC Radio, BBC, Sky News, and Al Jazeera.
His latest book, Extremism, Radicalization and Security: An Identity Theory Approach (London, Palgrave Macmillan, 2017) puts forward the case for a bottom-up, individual and community identity-driven approach, within which the government’s Prevent policy will remain a key strategy.
Dr Bill Kappis
Dr Vassilis (Bill) Kappis holds a PhD degree from the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney (2016) and Master’s degrees in Strategic Studies and European Integration from the Australian National University (2007) and the London School of Economics (2006) respectively. His doctoral thesis, submitted in 2015, assessed the impact of tense security crises on leadership perceptions across enduring rival dyads. Bill’s academic interests lie in the strategic and psychological aspects of security crises and foreign policy decision-making.
His current research is focused on the changing security dynamics in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean, focusing on issue areas such as great power rivalries and alliances, the evolution of NATO in response to the re-emergence of Russia as a great power in Eurasia and British security policy in Europe and the Middle East after Brexit.
Bill maintains affiliations with universities, think tanks and consultancies in Australia, Israel, Cyprus, Greece and the United States and is currently involved in the establishment of the Eastern Mediterranean Geopolitics Group, an international network of scholars with expertise in this particular region of concern to the international community due to, among others, the Syrian conflict, the refugee crisis and geo-economic developments in the hydrocarbon sector. The University of Buckingham Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies (BUCSIS) and the Cyprus Center for European and International Affairs (CCEIA) at the University of Nicosia will join forces in setting up and coordinating a number of activities related to British foreign and security policies in the Eastern Mediterranean after Brexit.
Bill is also an awarded academic instructor by the University of Sydney and a member of the Teaching and Learning Politics standing group of the European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR). In this capacity, he will be co-organizing a 2018 workshop on “Teaching and Learning Politics” in Bratislava with colleagues from the UK, Slovakia and Hungary.
Recent BUCSIS Publications
BUCSIS staff produce a truly impressive number of publications by any standards – as readers can judge from themselves: here is a list of our most recent published works:
Academic Articles and Chapters in Books
Anthony Glees with James Ridley-Jones (2017) ‘Viewpoint: The Current Challenges to UK National Security and How They Might be Addressed’ The Journal of the Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers Vol 25 No 1 ISSN 1039-1525 pp 40-56. Read more.
Anthony Glees (2017) ‘What Brexit means for British and European Intelligence agencies’ The Journal of Intelligence History, 2017 Routledge, Abingdon
Anthony Glees (2017) ‘Bye-bye Britain: Wie Angela Merkel den Ausschlag zum Brexit gab’ in Philip Plickert Merkel eine kritische Bilanz , 2017 978-3-95972-065-6 Finanzbuchverlag, Munich pp 199-219
Anthony Glees (2016) ‘Prevention Strategies to Counter Daesh Extremism in the UK’ in Beatrice Gorawantschy and Rohan Gunaratna eds Countering Daesh Extremism: European and Asian Responses (Singapore: International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research & Konrad Adenauer Foundation) Reg no 201228783N pp 221-239
Anthony Glees (2016) ‘Open Secrecy’ in Corneliu Bjola and Stuart Murray eds Secret Diplomacy: Concepts, Contexts and Cases (Abingdon: Routledge) ISBN 978-1-138-99935-0 pp 108-132
Anthony Glees (2016) ‘The impact of intelligence on policy: an introduction to the “‘Secret Documents of the Second World War’ Taylor and Francis online publication to coincide with the digitized publication of National Archive files on secret activity 1930s-1950” February 2016: http://www.secretintelligencefiles.com/Overview/Subject-Essays/Anthony-Glees
Anthony Glees (2016) ‘Germany’s European Ambitions: the Future of the EU’: https://www.zak.kit.edu/english/4748.php
Anthony Glees (2015) ‘Intelligence Studies, Universities and Security’ British Journal of Educational Studies(Abingdon: Routledge) Vol 63 No 3 pp 281-310
Anthony Glees (2015) ‘European Security Intelligence’ in Edith Drieskens ed The Sage Handbook on European Foreign Policy Washington, London, Los Angeles: Sage pp 264-277
Anthony Glees (2014) ‘Islamist Terrorism and British Universities’ in Colin Murray-Parkes ed Responses to Terrorism Abingdon: Routledge ISBN 978-0-415-6855 hbk 978-0-415-70624-7 pbk pp 144-151
Anthony Glees (2017) The People’s Daily (China): Current UK Security Challenges, 13 July 2017: http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2017-07/12/nw.D110000renmrb_20170712_4-03.htm
Anthony Glees (2017) The Daily Mail: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4453874/ANTHONY-GLEES-fear-10-000-jihadists-us.html
Anthony Glees (2016) The Sun: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2447928/as-germany-mourns-another-terror-attack-its-clear-that-chancellor-angela-merkel-has-failed-and-is-no-margaret-thatcher-says-professor-anthony-glees/
Anthony Glees (2016) The Daily Mirror: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/spanish-costas-european-holiday-resorts-7791854
Anthony Glees (2016) The People’s Daily (China): http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0419/c1002-28285484.html
Anthony Glees (2016) The New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/11/19/does-europe-need-a-new-surveillance-system/privacy-must-yield-to-the-needs-of-security
Anthony Glees (2016) The Sunday Guardian (India): http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/1948-open-borders-europe-not-helping-counter-terror
is the author of four books:
Extremism, Radicalization and Security: An Identity Theory Approach. London, Palgrave Macmillan (2017). Read more.
Cyber-War: The Anatomy of the Global Security Threat. Palgrave Macmillan (2014)
A Guide to National Security: Threats, Responses and Strategies. Oxford University Press (2012)
The Art and Science of Intelligence Analysis. Oxford University Press (2010)
Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism. In A. Silke (ed.) The Routledge Handbook on Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism. London, Routledge (2017)
Needles in Haystacks: Law, Capability, Ethics and Proportionality in Big-Data Intelligence Gathering. In A. Bunnik et al. (eds.) Big Data and National Security: Innovation, Ethics and Transparency. Basingstoke, Palgrave Macmillan (2016)
Pakistani intelligence and India. In P. Maddrell (ed.) The Image of the Enemy. Washington DC, Georgetown University Press (2015)
Competing Hypotheses in Contemporary Intelligence Analysis. In R. Arcos-Martin and W. Lahneman (eds.) The Art of Intelligence: Simulations, Exercises and Games. Lanham MD, Rowman and Littlefield (2014)
TEST Simulation Model: Team-Working and Experiential Scenario-based Training. (With Chris Jagger). In R. Arcos-Martin and W. Lahneman (eds.) The Art of Intelligence: Simulations, Exercises and Games. Lanham MD, Rowman and Littlefield (2014)
Papers in academic journals:
The road not taken: understanding barriers to the development of police intelligence practice. International Journal of Intelligence, Security and Public Affairs (2017, forthcoming); co-authored with A James, F Wadie and M Phythian
Intelligence Studies, Academia and Professionalization. International Journal of Intelligence, Security and Public Affairs (18/1, 2016) : 20-33
The Rise of Far-Right Extremism in Contemporary Great Britain and Continental Europe. Concordia Discors (Russia), (3/26, 2016): 166-175
No Easy Walk to Democracy: Security, Politics and the State in Pakistan. Pakistan Security Research Unit (PSRU) Brief number 72, 2015 (see https://www.dur.ac.uk/resources/psru/PSRUBriefing72.pdf )
Cyber Warfare. Oxford Bibliographies (2014)
“Greek-Israeli Security Cooperation: Dissonance in the EU CFSP?” at Angelos Giannakopoulos (ed.), Solidarity in the European Union: Challenges and Perspectives, published by the Daniel Abraham Center for International and Regional Studies, Tel-Aviv University, 2017
“The Bear Learns to Swim: Russia’s Re-emergence in the Mediterranean,” Eastern Mediterranean Geopolitical Review, 2:1, Spring 2017
“Evaluating the Prospects of Greek-Israeli Military Cooperation,” Eastern Mediterranean Policy Notes, No.7, June 2016, at http://www.emgr.unic.ac.cy/wp-content/uploads/EMPN_7.pdf
“NATO and Russia: A new “Reset” in the Mediterranean?,” European Rim Policy and Investment Council, October 2014, at http://erpic.org/regional-security-3/
“Russia’s Future in the Eastern Mediterranean,” ATHENA 2014 Security and Crisis Management Conference Journal, June 2014, pp. 88-93, at geetha.mil.gr/media/ATHENA2014/en/journal.html
“Seeing Through the Mist in the Eastern Mediterranean,” Analysis, European Rim Policy and Investment Council, April 2014, at http://erpic.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/seeing-through-the-mist-in-the-eastern-mediterranean.pdf
“Reliving the Last Crisis: Lessons from the 2008 Russo-Georgian Conflict.”
“Security Crises and Perceptual Shocks: Belief Updating and Perceptual Accuracy during the Cyprus S-300 Missile Crisis,” under review
“Neoclassical Realism and Perceptual Adjustment: Evidence from the 1996 Aegean Sea Crisis”
Other activities (workshops, invited presentations, op-eds etc.)
“4th Teaching and Learning Summer School,” Co-organizer, Bratislava, 15-23 July 2018, Teaching and Learning Politics (TLP) standing group of the European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR)
“New Designs in Political Science Teaching and 2) “The European Union’s External Policy,” panel chair and discussant, ECPR General Conference, 06 – 09 September 2017, Oslo, Norway
“The Meaning of Solidarity in Europe’s Common Security and Defence Policy,” discussant at the workshop “Solidarity in the EU and its Neighbourhood: Challenges and Perspectives” S. Abraham Centre for International and Regional Studies, 17 November 2016, Tel-Aviv University, Israel
“The Dynamics of Greek-Israeli Security Cooperation,” Invited Presentation, Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), 29 September 2016, Tel-Aviv, Israel
“Strategic Crises and Decision-Making,” presentation at the Department of Political Science, the Gershon H. Gordon Faculty of Social Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Israel, 19 May 2016
“The New Geopolitics of Europe,” Invited Presentation at the National Centre for Research on Europe, University of Canterbury, 10 April 2015, Christchurch, New Zealand
“Strategy Seeking” (in Greek), Simerini Daily, 06 October 2014, at www.sigmalive.com/simerini/analiseis/167187
“The Sultan of Oman’s Gift to Cyprus” (in Greek), Simerini Daily, 26 April 2014, at http://www.sigmalive.com/simerini/analiseis/120795
“Why Cyprus Should be Worried about the Pussy Riot Release,” Financial Mirror, 05 February 2014, at http://financialmirror.com/blog-details.php?nid=1255
Eastern Mediterranean Geopolitics Group, a new international group of scholars focusing on the Eastern Mediterranean, planning a series of activities in the UK and Cyprus related to the future of British security policy after Brexit, among others.